U.S. and Iranian officials are describing progress in their ongoing nuclear negotiations even as both sides accelerate visible preparations for a conflict that insiders and analysts now frame as a genuine near-term risk.

Indirect talks between the two nations in Geneva ended Tuesday with what Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, called “good progress” and agreement on a “set of guiding principles,” according to The New York Times. Trump advisers Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff reportedly met with Araghchi for three hours, with both nations agreeing to exchange draft plans for a resolution. 

Three Iranian officials familiar with the discussions described a possible framework in which Iran would suspend nuclear enrichment for three to five years, dilute its uranium stockpile on Iranian soil in the presence of international inspectors, and later join a regional consortium for civilian-grade enrichment, the newspaper said. 

In return, Iran would seek U.S. relief from financial and banking sanctions and the embargo on oil sales, while also offering investment and trade incentives, including in oil and energy, the NYT said. 

But fresh reporting from Axios and The Wall Street Journal show both nations are rapidly moving to a war footing, with the expectation that conflict could break out soon. 

The U.S. military’s presence in the region now includes two aircraft carriers, a dozen warships, hundreds of fighter jets and multiple air-defense systems, plus more than 150 cargo flights moving weapons and ammunition, Axios reported. An additional 50 fighter were sent to the Middle East within less than 24 hours of the Geneva meeting. 

Sources close to the White House who spoke to Axios described the potential for an outright war with Iran as very real, and in comments earlier this week Vice President Vance said that President Trump could soon determine that diplomatic outreach has “reached its natural end.” 

Iranian leaders are taking the threat seriously, according to The Wall Street Journal. The Iranian government is preparing for a possible U.S. strike by dispersing decision-making authority, putting leadership on high alert to avoid decapitation, and taking steps to shield its nuclear sites. 

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is reviving a “mosaic defense” posture that gives commanders autonomy to keep operations going under attack. Iranian naval units have also been deployed to the Strait of Hormuz and security forces have intensified a domestic crackdown aimed at preventing unrest if strikes occur, the Journal said. 

In a separate report, the Journal said that the U.S. had assembled the most air power in the region since 2003 invasion of Iraq. 

Should the Trump administration order an attack on Iran, it would likely be conducted alongside Israeli forces and be a major, weeks-long campaign that would more resemble a full-fledged war than the short-lived strike on Venezuela last month, sources told Axios. 

Read more at The New York Times, Axios, and The Wall Street Journal