Three Polymarket accounts made about $611,000 betting on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire before President Donald Trump’s conditional ceasefire announcement, according to a Decrypt report citing blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps, in trades that renewed scrutiny of possible insider activity on prediction markets.

Bubblemaps identified the accounts as “djijaij83jdo4jdlwjflsg,” “Elonfax89678,” and “Skoobidoobnj,” and said the gains came mainly from contracts tied to whether a ceasefire would occur before April 7 and April 15, Decrypt reported. The same cluster also made roughly $1.2 million on markets related to Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran in late February, the news agency said, citing Bubblemaps.

“This cluster has been betting and winning on military markets since 2024 using multiple accounts, some recently created, some older,” a Bubblemaps representative told Decrypt. The representative added that the accounts “predicted multiple independent surprise military operations.”

Bubblemaps said the trades were large and well-timed but stopped short of concluding the accounts belonged to insiders, according to the report.

“People can only wager the capital they have. We don’t know the income or net worth of individuals trading on Polymarket,” a representative for the firm told Decrypt. “We can only definitively say that these bets were large and well-timed.”

The cluster did not win every wager, however. The three accounts collectively lost nearly $50,000 on trades tied to whether a ceasefire would occur before March 31, according to the report. 

In a post on X cited by Decrypt, Bubblemaps said it could not say with certainty that the accounts belonged to insiders. “Their win rate on ceasefires is not perfect, and some positions, such as March 31, did not play out,” the firm said. “Still, their track record of correctly calling surprise attacks on Iran suggests they may have access to better information than most.”

Read more at Decrypt