The Trump administration is expected to extend its waiver of sanctions on Russian oil this week, according to former Treasury and State Department officials cited by Semafor, a step that could tee up a similar extension for Iranian oil later this month as the White House weighs fuel prices and broader market stability. 

The Treasury Department last month authorized sales of previously sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil already at sea through April 11 and April 19, respectively. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Iran-related move was intended to limit the economic fallout from the Iran war by increasing global supply and easing prices. 

But nearly a month later, experts told Semafor there was little evidence the waivers had materially reduced costs beyond temporarily calming investors. The broader pool of buyers for Russian and Iranian crude instead allowed those countries to command higher prices, with Russia at times earning an additional $150 million per day, while much of the Iranian oil was already headed to China, according to the report. 

Half a dozen former sanctions officials told Semafor they still expected the administration to renew the Russian oil waiver this week, with an Iranian extension likely to follow. U.S. gasoline prices are averaging about $4 a gallon, the highest since 2022, Semafor reported on Wednesday. 

The expected extensions underscore how sanctions policy has shifted in Trump’s second term, from a primary instrument of economic pressure to a more selective tool used alongside market considerations, the news outlet said. Former officials told the publication they saw little chance the administration would reimpose tougher restrictions on Russian oil before the midterm elections. 

Supporters of the waivers told Semafor they were narrow enough to function mainly as a market signal without fully surrendering pressure on Moscow and Tehran. Critics, however, warned that repeated extensions could establish a precedent in which sanctioned countries learn they can force Washington to ease restrictions by inflicting enough economic pain. 

The report also said staffing shortages remain a problem at the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control licensing division, which processes sanctions-related requests. Former officials told Semafor the unit had shrunk sharply and was facing roughly 15,000 open license applications. 

Read more at Semafor