Unusual bursts of trading across oil, equities, and prediction markets repeatedly appeared shortly before some of President Donald Trump’s most market-moving public statements, according to a BBC report that said some analysts believed the pattern bore the hallmarks of possible insider trading. 

The news outlet examined trading-volume data across several financial markets and matched it against major presidential announcements, finding spikes that in some cases occurred hours or minutes before statements were made public. Others cited in the report said the picture was less clear and that some traders may simply have become more adept at anticipating Trump’s interventions. 

Among the examples cited was trading in Brent crude futures on March 9, when volumes surged 47 minutes before a CBS reporter posted details of Trump’s interview saying the war with Iran was “very complete, pretty much.” Oil prices then fell by around 25 percent, according to the report. 

The BBC also pointed to March 23, when unusually heavy trading in U.S. oil and Brent contracts appeared shortly before Trump posted on Truth Social that Washington had held “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS” with Tehran over a “COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION” to hostilities. Oil prices fell sharply and stocks rose after the post, the report said. 

In April, an unusually large number of bets were placed on a fund tracking the S&P 500 shortly before Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries except China, after which the index jumped 9.5 percent in one of its biggest single-day gains since World War Two. Senate Democrats later urged the Securities and Exchange Commission to investigate whether the president’s announcements had enriched insiders and allies, the report said. 

The BBC also examined activity on prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi. 

One Polymarket user who began betting in late December 2025 placed $32,500 on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro leaving office by the end of January 2026 and then won $436,000 after Maduro was seized and ousted on January 3. The report separately cited blockchain analysis showing that six Polymarket accounts created in February correctly wagered on a U.S. strike on Iran by February 28, earning $1.2 million between them. 

Legal experts told the BBC that proving insider trading in such cases would be difficult because prosecutors would need to establish the source of the information, and none of the U.S. financial authorities contacted by the broadcaster acknowledged any of the allegations. Still, one academic cited in the report said suspiciously timed trades could plainly indicate that someone had advance knowledge of Trump’s statements even if no prosecution followed. 

Read more at the BBC