China remains the destination for about 90 percent of Iranian crude exports despite a recent U.S. sanctions waiver intended to release previously restricted oil onto global markets, Global Trade Review reported.

The U.S. Treasury Department on March 20 issued a general license authorizing the sale and delivery of Iranian oil and petroleum products that had been loaded before that date, including cargoes carried by so-called dark fleet vessels. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the waiver could quickly bring about 140 million barrels to market and ease supply pressures caused by the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to GTR.

But maritime intelligence firm Windward found that China has so far remained the main destination for Iranian cargoes, with 90 percent of Iranian crude exports headed there and more than 150 million barrels en route to China as of March 24, GTR reported. Vortexa similarly estimated there were around 161 million barrels of Iranian oil on the water as of March 22 and said China would likely remain the key destination for those shipments for now.

Analysts see little immediate scope for Iranian oil to reach a broader group of buyers, despite speculation that India could re-emerge as a major importer GTR said.  Kpler analyst Sumit Ritolia told the news agency that India was a “key demand center to watch,” and Bloomberg reported on March 24 that Reliance Industries had bought 5-million barrels of Iranian crude from the National Iranian Oil Company. 

Still, legal and commercial obstacles are likely to keep most trade flowing through existing channels. GTR cited David Tannenbaum of Blackstone Compliance Services as saying trade in Iranian oil would still likely violate restrictions in jurisdictions including the European Union, Britain, and Switzerland, all of which maintain sanctions on the National Iranian Oil Company.

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